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Cher'e Heyermann is an experienced Senior Project Consultant during high risk – high profile State of California and State of Nevada government projects. 

Cher'e's "Promoting National Security" speaking engagements include topics concerning; Computer Security, Infrastructure Security, Smart Grids, Renewable Energy, Net-Zero Construction Design and current US Geopolitical movements. She defines her geographic areas as the Americas and Asia-Pacific Regions.

She is a prior Military Police Officer and United States Marine Corps Veteran with time served in the United States Army and Air Force Reserve units. While attending American Military University she became a member of Sigma Iota Rho National Honor Society for International Studies, Delta Epsilon Tau International Honor Society, Golden Key International Honors Society, and graduated with Honors from the School of Security and Global Studies.

 

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Exercise: PRC - Taiwan Scenario

Heyermann (6-1) PRC-Taiwan Scenario
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Exercise
Week #6 Assignment: Step Five-Draw Tentative Conclusions About Each Hypotheses.
ACH Step Six-Identify “Linchpin” evidence.
Week 6 - ACH Steps Five and Six
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved diplomatically.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Linchpin
Day 30: PRC's Hu Jintao actions to avoid a military conflict. (Deception? Not likely)
+
-

--
ê Evidence #2
Day 50:   President Chen Shui-bian (DPP sent representatives to the mainland
+
-
-
ê Evidence #3
Linchpin
Section B:  PRC and Taiwan have economic and cultural ties
+
-
--
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved diplomatically.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Day 40: submarines from Canton, Zhangzhou, and Whenzhou to prepare for "operations.”  naval squadron , Canton "extended" operations.
-
+
+
ê Evidence #2
Day 45: 1st, 2nd, and 4th Infantry divisions to begin mobilizing.
-
+
+
ê Evidence #3
Day 65:  president Chen Shui-bian increases the alert status of Taiwan defense forces.  (old)
-
+
-
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H2a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with limited intervention.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Day 25:  President Obama cautioned Shu Chin-Chiang accept the "status quo"
-
+
-
ê Evidence #2
Linchpin
Day 25:    United Nations Security Council agreed to address the brewing crisis.
-
+
--
ê Evidence #3
Section B:   Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act for providing Taiwan with weapons “of a defensive nature."
-
+
-
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H2b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with limited intervention.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Day 25:   US could not guarantee political or let alone military support.
-
+
-
ê Evidence #2
Section B:  the US dispatched two carrier battle groups
-
+
-

ê Evidence #3
Section B:  the PRC fired several missiles inside of Taiwan's territorial waters during the 1996 Presidential elections.
-
+
-
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H3a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with a direct attack.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Day 20:  PLA B-6 bombers from Luqiao airfield were loading air-to-surface munitions.
-
+
+
ê Evidence #2
Day 30:  96th Missile Regiment near Nanping is calibrating their equipment in preparation for a CSS-6 missile launch.
-
+
+
ê Evidence #3
Linchpin
Section B:  PRC passed the Anti-Cessation Law to use "non-peaceful means" against "Taiwan should Taiwan declare their independence. 
--
+
+
Hypothesis è
ê Evidence
è (H3b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with a direct attack.
(H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
ê Evidence #1
Linchpin
Day 30: PRC's Hu Jintao appealed to UN to intervene in crisis. 
+
+
--
ê Evidence #2
Day 45:  The Xinhua news agency  footage included the launching of cruise missiles against surface targets and air-to-air combat.
-
+
-
ê Evidence #3
Section B:  Along with the commitment to defend Taiwan, the US began equipping the KMT with modern fighters, missiles, and naval vessels. 
-
+
-

Points Possible


Points Earned



Notations and Considered Evidence
Day 20:  Having essentially been warned by the international community, Shu Chin-Chiang’s next step remains uncertain.  (Political Solution =Ambiguous)
Day 20:  Imagery of Zhangzhou and Whenzhou naval ports revealed several amphibious assault squadrons were in the early stages of uploading supplies.
Day 20:   Xinhua’s reports have been verified by USAF reconnaissance flights confirmed the 96th Missile Regiment was conducting missile and radar calibrations (Limited Intervention, Direct Attack = Ambiguous)
Day 35: Although not officially advocating independence, Shu continues to insist he is only following the will of the Taiwanese people.  (Political Solution = Ambiguous)
Day 35:  Premier of the CPC Hu Jintao reportedly told the Chief of the PLA's General Staff, General Liang Guanglie to review "all applicable plans.  (Limited Intervention, Direct Attack = Ambiguous)
Day 35: The PLA's 25th and 79th Airborne divisions have been placed on alert   (Limited Intervention = Ambiguous)
Day 45: Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a statement that negotiations with the PRC were “progressing" and that Taiwan was contemplating lowering their military alert status as a sign of “goodwill.”  (Political Solution =Ambiguous)
Day 55: According to the Deputy Commander of Pacific Command, flight activity at Shantou, Fuzhou, and Luqiao air force bases has increased significantly within the past 48 hours.  (Direct Attack = Ambiguous)
Day 55:  Reporting from the National Security Agency indicates a spike in communications activity at Zhangzhou and Whenzhou Naval bases.  (Direct Attack = Ambiguous)
Deleted Step Five - 3a
Day 45:  During a formal press conference, Ma Ying Jeon (KMT-41.37%) criticized Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU-58.63%) for "unnecessarily increasing tensions [that could] bring grave consequences to the entire region."  Ambiguous, inaccurate
Day 50:  The People's Liberation Army Daily (the PLA's official news paper) proclaimed," The armed forces of the PRC stand ready to crush anyone seeking to undermine the CCP's sovereign authority." Ambiguous 

Day 65:   Chen Shui-bian emphasizes this action is purely defensive and is designed to demonstrate Taiwan's ability to democratically elect a new president without any "external influence or intervention."  Timing, inaccurate

Day 55:  Taiwan’s current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a public warning to Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) to avoid antagonizing the PRC by making "inflammatory comments."  Said Chen Shui-bian "I will not stand by and let one man's political desires place 23 million people at risk."  Timing, Ambiguous

H1b #3 Day 65:  President Chen Shui-bian increases the alert status of Taiwan defense forces. (old)
H3b #2 Day 45:  The Xinhua news agency footage included the launching of cruise missiles against surface targets and air-to-air combat.  (Source, old)